Conservationists have developed a scientific model that accurately maps where coral reefs are in the most trouble and identifies regions where reefs can be protected.

The Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and the International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth have developed a new scientific model that accurately maps where coral reefs are in the most trouble and identifies regions where reefs can be protected best.

Coral reefs have been devastated in large areas across the world as a result of global climate change.

.Disappearing at rates up to 5.4 percent per year over the past 30 years, they are among the earliest victims of climate change.

Bleaching, which climate change exacerbates, occurs when corals become so stressed that they eject the beneficial algae that give them their color. This eventually causes large sections of the reefs to lose much of their biodiversity.

Bleaching has been noticed in several coral reefs in recent years, most notably Australia’s Great Barrier Reef.

The model, which is being applied in areas throughout the Indian Ocean, is described in a recent issue of the journal Ecological Modelling.

The study’s authors said there is a need to develop methods and a decision support system to establish marine protected areas that harbour coral reefs that are resilient to climate change.

“This requires understanding patterns of coral's susceptibility to thermal stress and how coral communities will change with the environmental variables associated with climate change,” they wrote.

Synthesizing Data from Ocean Conditions

The new model synthesizes several ocean conditions, such as seawater temperatures, photosynthetic and ultraviolet light, winds and currents, and the concentration of microscopic plankton on the ocean’s surface.

These data were factored into previous reports of coral stress or bleaching and were then used to map the distribution of inhospitable conditions.

North Indian Ocean a Stressful Environment

The researchers found that much of the northern Indian Ocean contains very stressful environments for corals. At the same time, half of the marine parks with the strictest regulations are found within these harsh Indian Ocean areas.

“Areas of the Maldives and the Seychelles fall in the middle of the most severe conditions,” said WCS researcher Dr Timothy McClanahan, one of the study’s authors.

“These include some of the best coral reef parks and diving spots.

“Despite the large areas in high and severe stress, the model suggests that there are some reefs with less stressful conditions and more reasons for hope,” he said.

In an area east and just north of Madagascar lie the least-stressed reefs, which include those off the islands of Mauritius, Rodriques, and Reunion.

“These are now among the reefs the model identifies as the highest priority for conservation,” Dr McClanahan said.

Recognising Areas in Need of Protection

Dr McClanahan said the model would assist recognising areas where coral reefs are at risk rom climate change, and support measures for protecting them.

“Future studies using high-resolution data can better estimate the vulnerability of specific locations and the establishment of marine protected areas where coral reef diversity is more likely to persist through climate change.”

See also: Corals Flourish on Bikini Atoll